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Trade and Growth in Thailand

Các giấy hiện tại bằng cách sử dụng phân tích chuỗi thời gian xem xét mối liên hệ giữa thương mại và tăng trưởng ở Thái Lan 1950-2000 trong một mô hình tăng trưởng áp dụng bao gồm cả vốn và tỷ lệ trao đổi như các biến kiểm soát. Trước đến năm 1980 tính đàn hồi của thu nhập bình quân đầu người đối với thương mại là -0.2% chuyển đổi 0,07% trong năm 1980 phù hợp với sự thay đổi từ xuất khẩu tài nguyên và thay thế nhập khẩu để xuất khẩu sản xuất. Độ co giãn. | Trade and Growth in Thailand 1950-2000 This is the first draft no citation without permission from the authors Duc Minh Nguyen Auburn University Nong Lam University nguyedm @ auburn. edu nmduc @hcmuaf. edu. vn Henry Thompson Auburn University thomph1 @auburn. edu April 2008 The present paper using time series analysis examines the link between trade and growth in Thailand from 1950 to 2000 in an applied growth model including capital and the exchange rate as control variables. Prior to 1980 the elasticity of per capita income with respect to trade was -0.2 switching to 0.07 in 1980 in line with the change from resource exports and import substitution to manufactured exports. The exchange rate elasticity of per capita income prior to 1980 was 0.4 switching to -0.2 consistent with the move to a floating exchange rate. Results confirm the overriding theoretical importance of investment to economic growth. Keywords international trade neo-classical growth time series analysis Thailand JEL code F43 O53 Contact author Duc Minh Nguyen Department of Economics 202 Comer Hall Auburn University AL 36849 334-844-4800 fax 334-844-5639 1 Trade and Growth in Thailand 1950 - 2000 The role of trade in economic growth is a recurring issue and countries exporting manufactures seem to grow faster than those exporting natural resource products. Thailand presents an interesting study with its market economy discussed by Yamada 1998 as the share of agriculture in GDP fell from 37 in 1961 to 13 in 1991. Nevertheless labor intensive agriculture still employs the majority of the labor force and receives the third largest government budget allocation. From agricultural base Thailand has become one of the more diversified economies in Southeast Asia The Economist 2004 . Import substitution policy of the 1970s switched to manufactured export promotion in the 1980s based on labor intensive products such as textiles and apparel. Since 1990 the fastest growth has been in high technology products