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A Failure of Capitalism: The Crisis of '08 and the Descent into Depression_2

Posner (Làm thế nào Thẩm phán) là uncharacteristically khô trong cuốn sách này dày đặc mà tuyên bố thẳng thừng rằng chúng tôi đang trong một cuộc suy thoái chỉ vì chúng ta quá sợ hãi để gọi nó một trầm cảm. Ông làm cho một nỗ lực gần anh hùng để nghiên cứu sâu vào gốc rễ của cuộc khủng hoảng hiện nay, trích dẫn một số câu hỏi khó: làm thế nào nó xảy ra? tại sao nó lại không dự đoán? làm thế nào là chính phủ đáp ứng? Một thỏa thuận tuyệt vời của mặt đất. | The Depression and Its Proximate Causes ital structure. Because debt is a prescribed sum owed to a creditor regardless of how well or how badly the debtor does the higher the ratio of debt to equity the more money a financial firm will make in a rising market its revenues will rise but not its costs. As Rajan also pointed out banks and other financial companies have little incentive in deciding how much risk to take to worry about small probabilities of disaster. By definition low-probability events occur rarely and if they occur at all it is unlikely to be in the immediate future. Until disaster does occur the riskiness of the firms investment strategy although it may be the cause of the firms high return will be invisible to most investors and so it will look as if the firm is generating a high return with low risk. The higher the return on an investment is relative to risk the more attractive the investment is to a risk-averse investor and so the better the performance of the financial manager seems. That is one reason the private sector cannot be expected to adopt measures such as forbearing to engage in highly risky lending that might prevent a depression and thus why preventing depressions has to be a government responsibility. Even though 27 A Failure of Capitalism the financial industry has more information bearing on the likelihood of a depression than the government does it has little incentive to analyze that information. A depression is too remote an event to influence business behavior. Given discounting to present value and the fact that by virtue of the principle of limited liability the creditors of a bankrupt corporation cannot go after the personal assets of the corporations owners or managers events that are catastrophic to a corporation if they occur but are highly unlikely to occur and therefore if they do occur are likely to occur in the distant future will not influence the corporation s behavior. A bankruptcy is not the end of the world for