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Demographic transition in Bac Kan province - Vietnam period 1999 2009 and forecasting the one for the next 10 years

This creates pressure on the development of local socio-economic. To solve this problem, the authors conducted a demographic study on population fluctuation of Bac Kan during period 1999 - 2009 to contribute to elucidate the structure of the population, birth rate, death rate and their impact to socio-economic development in Bac Kan province, to predicts the population and propose solutions for sustainable development to the population in 2019. | Trần Viết Khanh và đtg Tạp chí KHOA HỌC & CÔNG NGHỆ 84(08): 71 - 75 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN BAC KAN PROVINCE - VIETNAM PERIOD 1999-2009 AND FORECASTING THE ONE FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS Tran Viet Khanh1, Bui Thi Thanh Huong2, Ha Thi Bien,3 1 Thainguyen University, 2Hanoi College of Education, 3 Na Ri High school, Bac Kan province Bac Kan is one of the poorest provinces of Vietnam (GDP per capita is 390 USD), locates 170 km from Hanoi to the north. The natural area is 4,868.41 km2. The population of the province in 2009 was 295,000 people, average population density is 60.66 persons / km2. Bac Kan has seven ethnic groups living together. Incomes are mainly from agricultural products. The challenge today of Bac Kan is low labor quality, high rate of unemployment, unbalanced labor structure, gender, and high proportion of agricultural labor. This creates pressure on the development of local socio-economic. To solve this problem, the authors conducted a demographic study on population fluctuation of Bac Kan during period 1999 - 2009 to contribute to elucidate the structure of the population, birth rate, death rate and their impact to socio-economic development in Bac Kan province, to predicts the population and propose solutions for sustainable development to the population in 2019. Keywords: Population, Transition, Birth rate, Death rate, Bac Kan INTRODUCTION * Bac Kan is one of the poorest provinces of Vietnam (GDP / person / year - 2009 is $ 390 / person / year), that is far from Hanoi capital about 170 kilometers toward the north-east. It’s square area is 4868.41 km2. Province's population in 2009 was 295,296 people, the average population density is 60.66 persons/km2. There are seven ethnic groups living there (Kinh, Tay, Nung, Dao, San Chay, Mong, Hoa). Bac Kan separated from Bac Thai province in 1997. The main income comes from the province's agricultural production. But the biggest problem exists at present is low-level labor force, high unemployment rate,