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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

1. Inflation targeting is becoming the monetary policy framework of choice in a growing number of emerging market and developing countries. This paper examines the experience of non-industrial inflation targeting countries to review the implications for the Fund’s approach to surveillance, technical assistance, and the design of conditionality in Fund-supported programs. For this examination, the paper uses macroeconomic data, technical assistance reports, and a new survey of central banks in selected emerging markets | INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Inflation Targeting and the IMF Prepared by Monetary and Financial Systems Department Policy and Development Review Department and Research Department1 Approved by Mark Allen Ulrich Baumgartner and Raghuram Rajan March 16 2006 Executive Summary.3 I. Introduction.4 II. The Ongoing Shift Toward Inflation Targeting.6 III. Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Performance.8 A. Macroeconomic Performance Under Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes.8 B. Inflation Targeting and Crises.14 IV. Adopting Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market and Developing Countries.16 A. Are Developing Countries Good Candidates for Inflation Targeting .17 B. Adapting Inflation Targeting to Non-industrial Countries.23 V. Implications of the Move Toward Inflation Targeting for Fund Work.27 A. Technical Assistance. 27 B. Fund Surveillance Training and Research.28 C. Fund-Supported Programs and Conditionality.29 VI. Conclusions and Issues for Discussion.32 Boxes 1. Inflation Targeting in the Philippines.39 2. Fund Conditionality Under Inflation Targeting Regimes.41 Tables 1. Infl ati on Targeters.5 2. Prospective Candidates for Inflation Targeting.8 3. Gains Losses from Different Regimes.13 4. Crisis Resilience Under Different Regimes.16 1 The main authors of this paper are Nicoletta Batini Peter Breuer Kalpana Kochhar and Scott Roger. - 2 - 5. Inflation Outcomes Relative to Targets.21 Figures 1. Evolution of Monetary Policy Regimes 1985-2005 .6 2. Regime Classification.7 3. Macroeconomic Variability Under Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes.12 4. Comparison of Volatility in International Reserves and Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting and Non-Inflation Targeting Countries.15 5. Comparison Between Current and Prospective Inflation Targeters.22 6. Topics Covered in Technical Assistance Reports on Inflation Targeting.27 Appendices 1. Macroeconomic Performance Under Three Monetary Policy Regimes.45 2. Details on Econometric Specifications and on Data from the Survey of