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The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book On Value part 19

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book On Value part 19. The purpose of this book is to supply, in a form suitable for laymen, guidance in the adoption and execution of an investment policy. Comparatively little will be said here about the technique of analyzing securities; attention will be paid chiefly to investment principles and investors’ attitudes. We shall, however, provide a number of condensed comparisons of specific securities - chiefly in pairs appearing side by side in the New York Stock Exchange list in order to bring home in concrete fashion the important elements involved in specific choices of common stocks | 166 The Intelligent Investor the end of 1968 and revalued on June 30 1971. This time the figures proved quite disappointing showing a sharp loss for the low-multiplier six or ten and a good profit for the high-multiplier selections. This one bad instance should not vitiate conclusions based on 30-odd experiments but its recent happening gives it a special adverse weight. Perhaps the aggressive investor should start with the low-multiplier idea but add other quantitative and qualitative requirements thereto in making up his portfolio. Purchase of Bargain Issues We define a bargain issue as one which on the basis of facts established by analysis appears to be worth considerably more than it is selling for. The genus includes bonds and preferred stocks selling well under par as well as common stocks. To be as concrete as possible let us suggest that an issue is not a true bargain unless the indicated value is at least 50 more than the price. What kind of facts would warrant the conclusion that so great a discrepancy exists How do bargains come into existence and how does the investor profit from them There are two tests by which a bargain common stock is detected. The first is by the method of appraisal. This relies largely on estimating future earnings and then multiplying these by a factor appropriate to the particular issue. If the resultant value is sufficiently above the market price and if the investor has confidence in the technique employed he can tag the stock as a bargain. The second test is the value of the business to a private owner. This value also is often determined chiefly by expected future earn-ings in which case the result may be identical with the first. But in the second test more attention is likely to be paid to the realizable value of the assets with particular emphasis on the net current assets or working capital. At low points in the general market a large proportion of common stocks are bargain issues as measured by these standards. A .