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The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change phần 10

Duy trì áp lực đối với kẻ xâm lược khu vực. Một số bang trong khu vực đã chứng minh rằng họ sẽ phản ứng với áp lực quốc tế phối hợp. Iran và Libya, ví dụ, có giảm hỗ trợ khủng bố phải nuôi dưỡng thiện chí của các nước châu Âu. Nếu Nga và Trung Quốc trở nên thuận lợi hơn quan điểm của Hoa Kỳ, | 314 The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Sustained pressure on regional aggressors. Several regional states have demonstrated that they will respond to concerted international pressure. Iran and Libya for example have both reduced their support of terrorism to cultivate the goodwill of European states. If Russia and China became more favorable to U.S. views regional states would have additional disincentives to proliferate or attack their neighbors. Reduced military effectiveness of aggressors. Even if area regimes do not respond to Russian and Chinese political pressure decreased military assistance will reduce the potency of their conventional and WMD arsenals. Greater potential for progress on an Arab-Israeli ceasefire or settlement. Although the settlement of the Arab-Israeli dispute depends largely on the immediate players involved a concerted international effort might be able to reduce regional tensions and encourage all sides to sit at the negotiating table. Improved anti-terrorism cooperation. Russia and China have considerable influence with governments in the region and strong ties to many local factions making them important partners in the effort to prevent future terrorist attacks against the United States. The Nature of Regime Change Individual leaders have shaped their countries policies to a remarkable degree in the past influencing the choice of allies economic policies and their willingness to cooperate with the United States among other factors. Leaders have often done so in the face of populaces that are opposed to their policies. In Egypt and Saudi Arabia in particular the popular resentment of the United States may in the future lead a different leader or regime to curtail ties to Washington to gain or bolster public support for the government. Even new leaders who are not hostile pose risks. Untested leaders may overreact during a crisis enabling problems to spin out of control. Inaction is also a risk. Many Middle East .