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Making economic sense phần 7

Nhiều tôn kính tổ chức tư nhân đã thành lập một Ủy ban hẹn hò của một số ít các chuyên gia, những người chọn lọc các dữ liệu để tìm ra, nếu bao giờ hết, khi một cuộc suy thoái đã bắt đầu. Vấn đề là mà phải mất nhiều tháng vào một cuộc suy thoái cho NBER để làm cho tâm trí của nó theo thời gian nó phát âm mà chúng ta đang trong thời kỳ suy thoái, nó gần như trên. | The Fiat Money Plague 301 phony gold standard. The 1930s system was itself replaced by Bretton Woods a world dollar standard in which other countries were able to inflate their own currencies on top of inflating dollars while the United States maintained a nominal but phony gold standard at 35 per gold ounce. Now the problems of the Friedmanite System 1 are inducing plans for some sort of return to a fixed exchange rate system. Unfortunately System 2 is even worse than System 1 for any successful coordination permits a concerted worldwide inflation a far worse problem than particular national inflations. Exchange rates among fiat moneys have to fluctuate since fixed exchange rates inevitably create Gresham s Law situations in which undervalued currencies disappear from circulation. In the Bretton Woods system American inflation permitted worldwide inflation until gold became so undervalued at 35 an ounce that demands to redeem dollars in gold became irresistible and the system collapsed. If System 1 is the Friedmanite ideal then the Keynesian one is the most pernicious variant of System 2. For what Keynesians have long sought notably in the Bernstein and Triffin Plans of old and in the abortive attempt to make SDRs special drawing rights a new currency unit is a World Reserve Bank issuing a new world paper-money unit replacing gold altogether. Keynes called his suggested new unit the bancor and Harry Dexter White of the U.S. Treasury called his the unita. Whatever the new unit may be called such a system would be an unmitigated disaster for it would allow the bankers and politicians running the World Reserve Bank to issue paper bancors without limit thereby engineering a coordinated worldwide inflation. No longer would countries have to lose gold to each other and they could fix their exchange rates without worrying about Gresham s Law. The upshot would be an eventual worldwide runaway inflation with horrendous consequences for the entire world. Fortunately a lack