In an age of uncertainty, peering 15 years into the future may seem like hubris. But ignoring long-term trends—demographic, economic, corporate—is an even less attractive option. Understanding the long-term future is vital in ensuring that strategies are sustainable, that opportunities are identified at an early stage and that challenges are addressed beforethey become insurmountable. This report assesses likely changes to the global economy, to eight major industries and to corporate structures between now and 2020. Our research drew on three main initiatives | Economist Intelligence Unit I Economist Foresight Economic industry and corporate trends A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit sponsored by Cisco Systems Foresight 2020 Economic industry and corporate trends Contents Preface 2 Executive summary 3 Chapter 1 The world economy 6 Chapter 2 Industries 22 Automotive 24 Consumer goods and retailing 30 Energy 36 Financial services 43 Healthcare and pharmaceuticals 50 Manufacturing 57 Public sector 62 Telecoms 67 Chapter 3 The company 74 Appendix I Survey results 86 Appendix II Methodology for long-term forecasts 95 The Economist Intelligence Unit 2006 1 Foresight 2020 Economic industry and corporate trends Preface In an age of uncertainty peering 15 years into the future may seem like hubris. But ignoring long-term trends demographic economic corporate is an even less attractive option. Understanding the longterm future is vital in ensuring that strategies are sustainable that opportunities are identified at an early stage and that challenges are addressed before they become insurmountable. This report assesses likely changes to the global economy to eight major industries and to corporate structures between now and 2020. Our research drew on three main initiatives The Economist Intelligence Unit s proprietary longterm economic forecasts for the world s major economies. A wide-ranging online survey of senior executives from around the world in November-December 2005. In total 1 656 executives took part. A series of in-depth interviews with executives analysts and policymakers around the world. We would like to thank all the executives who participated in the survey and interviews for their time and insights. Cisco Systems sponsored the report. We are grateful to the Cisco team and to Kenton Lewis Douglas Frosst David Chalmers and Kathy Burrows in particular for their support during the research process. Andrew Palmer was the editor of the report. Laza Kekic wrote the chapter on the world economy. Graeme Maxton .
