Drought and Water Cruises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues - Chapter 13

Biến đổi khí hậu phải là một yếu tố quan trọng ảnh hưởng đến quyết định sản xuất nông nghiệp. Lịch sử ở nước Úc, nông dân và chính phủ đã đầu tư rất nhiều trong việc giảm ảnh hưởng của biến đổi này vào sản xuất nông nghiệp. Đầu tư này đã bao gồm xây dựng các đập lớn trên hệ thống sông lớn trên cả nước, chủ yếu cho mục đích tưới tiêu, cấp phát và phát triển nước ngầm tài nguyên. Chính sách phát triển này được đặt lớn áp lực đối với hệ sinh thái và sông đã có thay đổi lớn hệ thống. Năm. | 13 A Role for Streamflow Forecasting in Managing Risk Associated with Drought and Other Water Crises SUSAN CUDDY REBECCA LETCHER FRANCIS H. S. CHIEW BLAIR E. Nancarrow and Tony JAKEMAN CONTENTS I. Introduction. 346 A. Seasonal Forecast and Climate Variability. 346 B. Adoption Constraints. 347 II. Estimating the Potential. 348 A. Case Study Context. 348 B. Seasonal Forecast Models. 350 C. Forecast Model Results. 353 D. Decision-Making Models. 355 E. Modeling Results. 356 III. Reality Bites. 359 IV. Summary. 362 V. Future Directions . 363 Acknowledgments. 364 References. 364 345 Copyright 2005 by Taylor Francis Group 346 Cuddy et al. I. INTRODUCTION Climatic variability should be a significant factor influencing agricultural production decisions. Historically in Australia farmers and governments have invested heavily in reducing the influence of this variability on agricultural production. This investment has included construction of large dams on major river systems throughout the country primarily for irrigation purposes and allocation and development of groundwater resources. This development policy placed large pressures on ecosystems and has significantly modified river systems. In 1994 the Council of Australian Governments began a period of water reform entering a new management phase for water resources. These reforms have included assessment of the sustainable yield from aquifer systems often found to be below current allocation and even extraction levels as well as allocation of a proportion of flows to the environment. In many catchments these water reforms have not only reduced irrigators access to some types of water but have also implicitly increased the effect of climate variability on their decision making by increasing their reliance on pumping variable river flows. These management and allocation pressures are compounded by Australian streamflow and to a lesser extent climate being much more variable than elsewhere in the world. The interannual .