Mặc dù thực tế là hạn hán là một tính năng không thể tránh khỏi của khí hậu gần như tất cả các chế độ khí hậu, tiến bộ về hạn hán chuẩn bị đã được rất chậm. Nhiều quốc gia hiện nay cảm thấy một cảm giác cấp bách để di chuyển về phía trước với một chủ động hơn, dựa trên cách tiếp cận quản lý rủi ro hạn hán (ISDR, Năm 2003; Wilhite, 2000). Chắc chắn sự xuất hiện rộng rãi nguy hiểm này ngấm ngầm tự nhiên trong những năm gần đây đã góp phần ý thức cấp bách. Tuy nhiên, hạn. | Part IV Integration and Conclusions Copyright 2005 by Taylor Francis Group 15 Drought and Water Crises Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead DONALD A. WILHITE AND ROGER S. PULWARTY CONTENTS I. Introduction. 389 II. Moving from Crisis to Risk Management Changing the Paradigm. 392 III. Final Thoughts . 395 References. 398 I. INTRODUCTION Despite the fact that drought is an inevitable feature of climate for nearly all climatic regimes progress on drought preparedness has been extremely slow. Many nations now feel a growing sense of urgency to move forward with a more 389 Copyright 2005 by Taylor Francis Group 390 Wilhite and Pulwarty proactive risk-based drought management approach ISDR 2003 Wilhite 2000 . Certainly the widespread occurrence of this insidious natural hazard in recent years has contributed to the sense of urgency. But drought occurs in many parts of the world and affects portions of many countries on an annual basis. For example the average area affected by severe and extreme drought in the United States each year is 14 . This figure has been as high as 65 1934 and has hovered in the 35-40 range in recent years. So does the widespread occurrence of drought in the United States over the last 5-6 years explain the emergence of several national initiatives centered on drought monitoring and preparedness given that events of this magnitude have not motivated policy makers to act in the past Our experience would suggest that this is only one of the factors contributing to the increased attention being directed to this subject in the United States and in other drought-prone countries. Climate change and the potential threat of an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events are also a contributing factor. However the uncertainty associated with climate change is probably not playing a significant role in this trend because most policy makers have difficulty thinking beyond their term of office or the next election. For regions that have in recent .
