Phương pháp cổ điển chẳng hạn như tiêu chuẩn Hume và Koch của định đề không làm việc tốt cho các hệ thống mở với các triệu chứng khác nhau. Các hệ thống mở và lớn quy mô liên kết với các trang web như Cherry điểm loại trừ việc thử nghiệm. mô lớn các yếu tố như các PDO là không có thể thao tác và phải được kết hợp vào bất kỳ khuôn khổ quan hệ nhân quả. Ecoepidemiological phương pháp tiếp cận như những người Suter et al. (2002) vốn không định lượng, nhưng dựa hoặc điểm đề án không dễ dàng thao. | Chapter 12 Retrospective Regional Risk Assessment Predictions and the Application of a Monte Carlo Analysis for the Decline of the Cherry Point Herring Stock Wayne G. Landis Emily Hart Hayes and April M. Markiewicz contents Retrospective RRM and WoE Weight of Relative Risk Model and the WoE Use of Ranks and Filters to Quantify Relative Spatially Use in a Prospective and Retrospective Common Ranking Retrospective WoE Analysis for Cherry Point Pacific Conclusions and introduction The history of the Pacific herring stock at Cherry Point Washington and a series of alternative hypotheses for its decline were presented in Chapter 11. We Landis et al. 2004 conducted a regional ecological risk assessment using the relative risk model RRM to investigate the causes of the current decline current risks to the 245 2005 by CRC Press LLC 246 REGIONAL SCALE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT population and the outcomes of future management options. The population decline of the herring corresponds to a collapse of the age structure although survivorship of eggs to the age 2 class has not diminished. The range of spawning areas has also declined with the area of Point Whitehorn as the principal location. The retrospective risk assessment identified climate change as expressed by the warmer sea surface temperatures associated with a warm Pacific decadal oscillation PDO and exploitation as important risk factors. The warmer water also changes patterns in food resources predators and water quality. Contaminants have the potential for impact but exposure to the eggs hatchlings and fry has not been demonstrated at Cherry Point CP . Exposure of adults to contaminants during migration may occur and has been included into our assessment. Modeling of the population age vs. fecundity curves and .
