Chương 1 xem xét các yếu tố đánh giá rủi ro, một quá trình mà trong đó lý thuyết tiên đoán được sử dụng để ước tính ảnh hưởng sức khỏe ở liều thấp vì quan sát trực tiếp thường không có sẵn. Trong hệ thống hiện hành của hóa chất và bảo vệ bức xạ, nguy cơ thông tin ở những liều lượng nhỏ là cần thiết trong quyết định quy định làm và thực hành quản lý rủi ro. Quyết định các nhà sản xuất và nhà quản lý cần xử lý về rủi ro để hiểu các. | 2 Scientific Guesswork Chapter 1 reviewed the elements of risk assessment a process in which predictive theories are used to estimate health effects at low doses because direct observations are not usually available. In the current system of chemical and radiation protection risk information at small doses is necessary in regulatory decision making and in risk-management practices. Decision makers and regulators need a handle on risks to understand the public health impacts of dose limits and risk-management options. Risk-management practitioners use risk information to develop and implement costeffective risk-reduction strategies. Choosing the right dose response has broad public health political social and economic implications. If the dose-response function overestimates the risk huge sums of money may be expended needlessly to reduce public health and environmental risks that either do not exist or are too small to be of concern. If the theory underestimates the true risk avoidable harm to society public health and environment may result. If the dose response is steep . high risk coefficient even a small reduction in dose can lead to a dramatic diminution in risk. A shallow dose response indicates that changes in dose are not likely to affect risk in a significant way. Risk-communication strategies also hinge on the shape of the dose-response curve. Safety is much easier to sell if the underlying dose response has a threshold. Below the threshold dose risk of adverse effects is zero. The notion of safety is more challenging if the dose response is without a threshold because it can be interpreted that any dose is potentially harmful. The costs of environmental remediation of federal sites used for the development of nuclear weapons during the Cold War illustrate the magnitude of the problem in an economic context. The . government may spend as much as 350 billion to clean up sites in the nuclear weapons complex to comply with the Environmental .
