Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu về sinh học được đăng trên tạp chí sinh học quốc tế đề tài : Meeting human resources for health staffing goals by 2018: a quantitative analysis of policy options in Zambia | Tjoa et al. Human Resources for Health 2010 8 15 http content 8 1 15 RESEARCH HUMAN RESOURCES FOR HEALTH Open Access Meeting human resources for health staffing goals by 2018 a quantitative analysis of policy options in Zambia Aaron Tjoa 1 Margaret Kapihya2 Miriam Libetwa2 Kate Schroder1 Callie Scott4 Joanne Lee3 and Elizabeth McCarthy1 Abstract Background The Ministry of Health MOH in Zambia is currently operating with fewer than half of the health workers required to deliver basic health services. The MOH has developed a human resources for health HRH strategic plan to address the crisis through improved training hiring and retention. However the projected success of each strategy or combination of strategies is unclear. Methods We developed a model to forecast the size of the public sector health workforce in Zambia over the next ten years to identify a combination of interventions that would expand the workforce to meet staffing targets. The key forecasting variables are training enrolment graduation rates public sector entry rates for graduates and attrition of workforce staff. We model using Excel Office Microsoft 2007 the effects of changes in these variables on the projected number of doctors clinical officers nurses and midwives in the public sector workforce in 2018. Results With no changes to current training hiring and attrition conditions the total number of doctors clinical officers nurses and midwives will increase from 44 to 59 of the minimum necessary staff by 2018. No combination of changes in staff retention graduation rates and public sector entry rates of graduates by 2010 without including training expansion is sufficient to meet staffing targets by 2018 for any cadre except midwives. Training enrolment needs to increase by a factor of between three and thirteen for doctors three and four for clinical officers two and three for nurses and one and two for midwives by 2010 to reach staffing targets by 2018. .
