Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu về sinh học được đăng trên tạp chí sinh học quốc tế đề tài : Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model | Barber and López-Valcárcel Human Resources for Health 2010 8 24 http content 8 1 24 ffWJ HUMAN RESOURCES h Ể L J FOR HEALTH METHODOLOGY Open Access Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain application of a system dynamics model Patricia Barber Beatriz Gonzalez López-Valcárcel Abstract Background Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods We created a supply and demand need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2 at present 2800 specialists to in 2025 almost 21 000 . The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery Pediatric Surgery Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery Family and Community Medicine Pediatrics Radiology and Urology. Conclusions The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America. Background The provision of human resources in the health field is a logistical task of great complexity. The need for longterm planning in a context of uncertainty and on a national scale the interconnections .
