Tham khảo tài liệu 'trading strategies for the global stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets_5', tài chính - ngân hàng, đầu tư chứng khoán phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | 172 STOCK MARKET GROUPS FIGURE LONDON COPPER PRICES VERSUS PHELPS DODGE THE LARGEST COPPER PRODUCER IN THE UNITED STATES. THE MAJOR DOUBLE TOP IN COPPER IN THE AUTUMN OF 1989 AND ITS SUBSEQUENT COLLAPSE COINCIDED WITH A SHARP DROP IN THE PRICE OF PHELPS DODGE. THE ARROWS SHOW THAT RALLIES IN THE PRICE OF COPPER HAVE BEEN BENEFICIAL TO PHELPS DODGE SHARE PRICES. London Copper 5-9 7-18 9-26 12-5 2-13 4-24 7-3 9-11 11-20 1-29 70 60 50 40 30 Phelps Dodge 5 88 9 88 2 89 7 89 11 89 I-1--1--1_J__III. 5-9 7-18 9-26 12-5 2-13 4-24 7-3 9-11 11-20 1-29 2 2 90 stocks such as savings and loans and money center banks usually trend in the same direction as the bond market and in the opposite direction of commodity markets. By monitoring the CRB Index bond ratio the intermarket trader is able to tell whether money should be placed in inflation commodity or disinflation interest-sensitive stocks. Because of their close relationship to bonds interest-sensitive stocks have a tendency to lead the stock market at major tops and bottoms. Not all commodity groups trend in the same direction. Copper and aluminum shares weakened in the second half of 1989 as copper and aluminum prices fell along with most industrial prices see Figure . Copper weakness in late 1989 was also tied to stock market weakness as fear of recession intensified. Chapter 13 will discuss the role of copper as an economic forecaster and its relation to the stock market. That chapter will also discuss in more depth the relative performance of commodity and interest-sensitive stocks at major cyclical turning points. Another interest-sensitive group mentioned briefly in this chapter is the utilities. In Chapter 10 we ll examine how intermarket analysis affects the Dow Jones utility Average and the usefulness of the Dow utilities as a leading indicator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. 10 The Dow Utilities as a Leading Indicator of Stocks Dow Theory is based on the comparison of two Dow Jones averages the Dow
