Có một mô hình thất vọng nổi lên từ câu chuyện trên: tương đối ít các nhà đầu tư của một quỹ thành công thực sự có được lợi nhuận cao đầu. Hop đa số áp đảo vào bandwagon ngay trước khi nó bị treo bên đường. Nếu chúng ta "đô la trọng lượng" trở lại của quỹ, chúng tôi thấy rằng các nhà đầu tư trung bình trong Quỹ Oakmark tụt lại phía sau | The Market Is Smarter Than You Are 85 investors getting lower and lower returns. It can be clearly seen that Mr. Sanborn had significant difficulties once his fund grew beyond a few billion dollars in size. There s another depressing pattern that emerges from the above story relatively few of a successful fund s investors actually get its high early returns. The overwhelming majority hop onto the bandwagon just before it crashes off the side of the road. If we dollar-weight the fund s returns we find that the average investor in the Oakmark Fund underperformed the S P by annually. Jonathan Clements of The Wall Street Journal quips that when an investor says I own last year s best-performing fund what he usually forgets to add is Unfortunately I bought it this year. And finally one sad almost comic note. As we ve already mentioned most of the above studies show evidence of performance consistency in one corner of the professional heap the bottom. Money managers who are in the bottom 20 of their peer group tend to stay there far more often than can be explained by chance. This phenomenon is largely explained by impact costs and high expenses. Those mangers that charge the highest management fees and trade the most frenetically like Mr. Tsai and his gunslinger colleagues incur the highest costs year-in and year-out. Unfortunately it s the shareholders who suffer most. How the Really Big Money Invests There is one pool of money that is even bigger and better-run than mutual funds the nation s pension accounts. In fact the nation s biggest investment pools are the retirement funds of the large corporations and governmental bodies such as the California Public Employees Retirement System CALPERS which manages an astounding 170 billion. These plans receive a level of professional management that even the nation s wealthiest private investors can only dream of. If you are a truly skilled and capable manager this is the playground you want to wind up in. For example a
