Tham khảo tài liệu 'quantitative economics how sustainable are our economies by peter bartelmus_10', kinh doanh - tiếp thị phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | Environmental Policy Measures in General Equilibrium and Input-Output Analysis 217 Fig. Econometric input-output model Panta Rhei Source Meyer 1999 fig. 1 simplified authorized copyright permission European Communities. environmental concerns it ignores produced capital maintenance cost or assumes a constant share of fixed capital consumption in GDP. GDP-based models thus assess the potential economic cost of environmental policy rather than the sustainability of economic growth cf. Section . Figure shows a decrease of CO2 by 17 since the introduction of the ecotax in 1999. Since 1991 the total reduction amounts to about 25 - in line with governmental targets at the time. The figure also presents a revised baseline scenario reflecting the policy situation in 2004. This scenario assumes among others the introduction of EU-wide trading of capped pollution permits. As a result Germany should be below the year 2020 target of 800 million tons of emission set for the country by the Kyoto protocol. One of the modules added in the latest version is the material flow account. Based on export-driven demand for capital goods and diminishing effects of the unification-caused decrease of lignite production cf. Section the model predicts a relinkage of TMR with GDP increase. For the period 1991-2020 we might thus see an inverted Kuznets curve . initially falling and later increasing environmental pressure with continuing economic growth. In Factor-4 terms the sustainability gap shown in Figure would be widening. 218 12 Policy Analysis Can We Make Growth Sustainable _ Baseline COj projection _ Eco-taxed projection . Revised baseline Fig. Panta Rhei projections of GDP and CO2 emissions Germany 1991-2007 2015 Source Meyer 1999 2005 authorized copyright permission European Communitites. Environmental Constraints and Optimality A Linear Programming Approach The basic input-output model does not leave anything to choice and hence to .
