Tham khảo tài liệu 'reviews of trading transaction timing_2', tài chính - ngân hàng, đầu tư chứng khoán phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | A First Envelope Adds Visibility five to seven weeks in duration. One sample is only three weeks long. This one is a result of magnitude-duration fluctuation and is to be ignored. The average duration of the remaining seven samples is weeks. Furthermore it is seen that prices in three places exceed envelope bounds. This is not unusual. Envelopes should be constructed so that nearly all the data is enclosed but a second criterion calls for minimum envelope width. Quite often a compromise is necessary. Notice that in each case of envelope overrun the envelope could not have been drawn in any other manner without considerable widening. The overrun of the third and fourth weeks was dictated by the full channel width of the price action of the fifth week points 1 and 2 . Points 3 4 and 5 weekly lows and highs just prior to or just following channel overruns forced channel bounds showing clearly that the overruns were exceptions. The final downward hook to the channel is forced by point 5 the lows of the thừd fourth and fifth weeks before the end of data and the highs of the second and thừd weeks before data end. We have now added a small amount of additional visibility. We know that the trend of prices is down for the immediate future. We don t know how far or for how long but we expect about three more weeks at least on the downside the last six-week cycle is now three weeks along . We conclude that we wouldn t want to buy the stock right now. FINDING THE OUTER ENVELOPE Now turn to Figure IV-3. Figure IV-2 clearly displayed a cycle of duration longer than six weeks. Again the techniques of channel construction are employed to draw a 74 second channel. Only one full cycle of this periodicity is present and it spans 19 weeks. Suddenly a great deal of additional visibility is ours We notice that the sum of all periodicities of duration longer than 19 weeks represented by the center line of the second channel has rounded a bottom and is now up. We see also that we are
