Tham khảo tài liệu 'property estate modelling and forecasting_11', tài chính - ngân hàng, đầu tư bất động sản phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | Vector autoregressive models 363 Table Dynamic VAR forecasts Coefficients used in the forecast equation ARPRETt ASPY t AWt AAAAt Constant ARPRETt-1 ARPRETt-2 ASPY t-1 t-2 AWt-1 AWt-2 AAAAt-1 AAAAt-2 Forecasts ARPRETt ASPY t A10Tt AAAAt May 07 Jun. 07 Jul. 07 Aug. 07 Sep. 07 Oct. 07 Nov. 07 Dec. 07 Jan. 08 the system. Table shows six months of forecasts and explains how we obtained them. The top panel of the table shows the VAR coefficients estimated over the whole-sample period presented to four decimal points so that the forecasts can be calculated with more accuracy . The lower panel shows the VAR forecasts for the six months August 2007 to January 2008. The forecast for ARPRET for August 2007 or per cent monthly return is given by the following equation - X X X X X X X - X 364 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting The forecast for ASPYt for August 2007 - that is the change between July 2007 and August 2007 or basis points - is given by the following equation - X X X - - X X - X X X The forecasts for August 2007 will enter the calculation of the September 2007 figure. This version of the VAR model is therefore a truly dynamic one as the
