We provide several new insights about the value of active management and the economic significance of fund return predictability through an analysis of the optimal portfolios of mutual funds prescribed by our framework at the end of the sample period (December 31, 2002). In particular, consider an investor who completely rules out predictability in fund returns, as well as active management skills. Not surprisingly, this investor heavily weights index funds, such as the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund. However, if this investor allows for the possibility of predictability in fund risk loadings and benchmark returns, she allocates her entire wealth to actively managed funds in the.
