To assess the required fleet numbers, we commissioned a consultant, Chris Kinchin-Smith, to engage with TOCs, ROSCOs 2 , manufacturers and the wider supply chain. We developed a base position for April 2014, the end of Control Period 4, and then identified likely developments over the course of Control Period 5 (CP5) based on the options put forward in the IIP. The outcome of this process is attached as Appendix 1. These forecast numbers for CP5 are estimates based around our understanding of the position at the end of March 2012. They are highly dependent upon decisions taken.
