The rationale for using oil price movements as a factor affecting stock valuations is that, in theory, the value of stock equals the discounted sum of expected future cash flows. These cash flows are affected by macroeconomic events that can be influenced by oil shocks. Indeed, oil exports affect the main economic variables in GCC countries: earnings, government budget revenues and expenditures and aggregate demand. So oil price increases should positively affect corporate output and earnings, and then stock returns in these countries. However, GCC countries are also importers of manufactured goods from developed and emerging countries. .
