The recent recession episode that started in the United States in December 2007 stood as another challenge for our ability to anticipate the timing and the amplitude of business cycle fluctuations. Throughout 2007, almost all the forecasts computed by central banks, academics and market par- ticipants were not able to detect the approaching sharp decline in real GDP, even when produced around end-2008, right ahead of remarkably negative GDP growth figures. The highly coincident and sharply negative GDP growth rates recorded almost worldwide through the recession, and especially in 2008Q4 and 2009Q1, contribute to make the failure in forecasting even more serious and call, at the very.
