The model used–an extension of the log-linear dividend-price ratio model of Campbell and Shiller (1988, 1989)–facilitates a straightforward test of these alternatives in a linear regression with the log price-earnings ratio as dependent variable. The regression results suggest that the correlation between the price-earnings ratio and expected inflation is the result of both effects; that is, an increase in expected inflation reduces equity prices because it is associated with both lower expected real earnings growth and higher required real returns. Surprisingly, the results do not suggest that the earnings channel is merely a reflection of inflation’s recession- signaling properties. .
