There have been many attempts since to determine if the rise in stock prices prior to the crash in 1929 was in fact an inflated speculation, a “bubble.” The same basic methodology has been applied, namely, to estimate deviations between market values and the present value of expected future dividends. Many find a bubble. Many do not. The results are inconclusive because it is hard to estimate market participants’ expectations and the rates at which they discount the future.
