For example, poor mental health may impact on later outcomes by intermediary choices such as insufficient investment in effort (. playing truant) and self- medication (. substance abuse). We attempt to say something about the likely importance of these factors. Finally, we perform our analysis using a very recent cohort of young people where there is longitudinal data - and in a country where both poor mental health and early drop-out are known to be very big problems by interna- tional standards. It is rare to have data for such a recent cohort (aged 14/15 in 2004) and this might be important because adoles- cent emotional problems and conduct disorder.