We should not make the mistake of thinking that, by somehow looking at two rather different forecasts, we are necessarily allowing for everything that could go awry. The dispersion of economic forecasts is not, and should not be expected to be, any sort of indicator of the uncertainty facing the economy. But it is nevertheless a fact that two very different forecasts lead to much the same conclusion. If the inflation target is to be met in three years then, on the basis of what we know now, it is most unlikely that the Bank Rate can be.
