FCRA and market-based cost estimates alike take into account expected losses from defaults by borrowers. However, because FCRA estimates use Treasury interest rates instead of market-based rates for discounting, FCRA estimates do not incorporate the cost of the market risk associated with the loans. Market risk is the component of financial risk that remains even after investors have diversified their portfolios as much as possible; it arises from shifts in macroeconomic conditions, such as productivity and employment, and from changes in expectations about future macroeconomic conditions. Loans and loan guarantees expose the government to market risk because future repayments of loans tend to be lower when the economy as a whole is performing.
