We modelled potential impacts from a decline in international students, initially through the construction of a Baseline case for growth which largely held prior to current trends. From a growth forecast for 2010 of 214,212 students, we model this baseline and three realistic scenarios. The ‘Sideways’ scenario reflected an initial drop in international higher education commencements of 10% on 2010 enrolment levels in 2011, with numbers stabilising at this level through 2012 and 2013 before a return to Baseline growth of around 3% per annum. The ‘Trough’ scenario saw a decline in commencements of 20% in each of 2011, 2012 and 2013 before a return to 3% growth in the two years thereafter. .
