We conclude in Section V with a discussion of what our results do and do not imply for actual multipliers. We conclude that multipliers were substantially above 1 in the early years of the crisis. The lower coefficients in recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller actual multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. We end with a number of caveats. First, forecasters do not typically use explicit multipliers, but instead use models in which the actual multipliers depend on the type of fiscal adjustment and on other economic conditions
