In 1993, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) published Emerging Technologies in Ethanol Production, a report on the then-current state of ethanol production technology and efficiency (Hohmann and Rendleman). The report included a summary of production costs (table 1) and predictions of “near-term” and “long-term” technological advances that many believed would bring down ethanol costs. The numbers were based on the costs of wet milling, which was then by far the greatest source of output. (Milling types are explained in the next section.) The estimate included a capital cost component, which distin- guished this estimate from others done at the time. Other estimates ranged from $ to $ per gallon
