At the end of this lecture, students should be able to understand the concept of Just-in-time, identify and address three major issues managers must address, differentiate between push and pull scheduling, understand the lean thinking concepts and how it can be applied to cutting waste out of supply chains. | 1-1 Logistics Management LSM 730 Dr. Khurrum S. Mughal Lecture 21 1 8-2 What’s Forecasted in the Supply Chain? Spatial Vs Temporal Demand Lumpy Vs Regular Demand Derived Vs. Independent Demand CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. 8-3 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Some Forecasting Method Choices Qualitative Surveys Expert systems or rule-based Historical projection Exponential smoothing Causal or associative Regression analysis Collaborative Demand Behavior Trend a gradual, long-term up or down movement of demand Random variations movements in demand that do not follow a pattern Cycle an up-and-down repetitive movement in demand Seasonal pattern an up-and-down repetitive movement in demand occurring periodically Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-4 8-5 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Typical Time Series Patterns: Random 8-6 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Typical Time Series Patterns: Random with Trend 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time Sales Actual sales Average sales 8-7 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Typical Time Series Patterns: Random with Trend & Seasonal 8-8 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Typical Time Series Patterns: Lumpy Time Sales Forecasting Process 12-9 6. Check forecast accuracy with one or more measures 4. Select a forecast model that seems appropriate for data 5. Develop/compute forecast for period of historical data 8a. Forecast over planning horizon 9. Adjust forecast based on additional qualitative information and insight 10. Monitor results and measure forecast accuracy 8b. Select new forecast model or adjust parameters of existing model 7. Is accuracy of forecast acceptable? 1. Identify the purpose of forecast 3. Plot data and identify patterns 2. Collect historical data No Yes Qualitative Methods Management, marketing, purchasing, and engineering are sources for internal qualitative forecasts Delphi method involves soliciting forecasts about technological advances from experts 12-10 | 1-1 Logistics Management LSM 730 Dr. Khurrum S. Mughal Lecture 21 1 8-2 What’s Forecasted in the Supply Chain? Spatial Vs Temporal Demand Lumpy Vs Regular Demand Derived Vs. Independent Demand CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. 8-3 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Some Forecasting Method Choices Qualitative Surveys Expert systems or rule-based Historical projection Exponential smoothing Causal or associative Regression analysis Collaborative Demand Behavior Trend a gradual, long-term up or down movement of demand Random variations movements in demand that do not follow a pattern Cycle an up-and-down repetitive movement in demand Seasonal pattern an up-and-down repetitive movement in demand occurring periodically Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-4 8-5 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Typical Time Series Patterns: Random 8-6 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Typical Time Series Patterns: Random with Trend 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time Sales Actual sales Average sales 8-7 CR (2004)
