Lecture 17 - Forecasting. When you complete this chapter you should be able to : Understand the three time horizons and which models apply for each use; explain when to use each of the four qualitative models; apply the naive, moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend methods. | Lecture 17 Forecasting Books Introduction to Materials Management, Sixth Edition, J. R. Tony Arnold, ., CFPIM, CIRM, Fleming College, Emeritus, Stephen N. Chapman, ., CFPIM, North Carolina State University, Lloyd M. Clive, ., CFPIM, Fleming College Operations Management for Competitive Advantage, 11th Edition, by Chase, Jacobs, and Aquilano, 2005, .: McGraw-Hill/Irwin. Operations Management, 11/E, Jay Heizer, Texas Lutheran University, Barry Render, Graduate School of Business, Rollins College, Prentice Hall Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter you should be able to : Understand the three time horizons and which models apply for each use Explain when to use each of the four qualitative models Apply the naive, moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend methods 2 Forecasting at Disney World Global portfolio includes parks in Hong Kong, Paris, Tokyo, Orlando, and Anaheim Revenues are derived from people – how many visitors and how they spend their money | Lecture 17 Forecasting Books Introduction to Materials Management, Sixth Edition, J. R. Tony Arnold, ., CFPIM, CIRM, Fleming College, Emeritus, Stephen N. Chapman, ., CFPIM, North Carolina State University, Lloyd M. Clive, ., CFPIM, Fleming College Operations Management for Competitive Advantage, 11th Edition, by Chase, Jacobs, and Aquilano, 2005, .: McGraw-Hill/Irwin. Operations Management, 11/E, Jay Heizer, Texas Lutheran University, Barry Render, Graduate School of Business, Rollins College, Prentice Hall Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter you should be able to : Understand the three time horizons and which models apply for each use Explain when to use each of the four qualitative models Apply the naive, moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend methods 2 Forecasting at Disney World Global portfolio includes parks in Hong Kong, Paris, Tokyo, Orlando, and Anaheim Revenues are derived from people – how many visitors and how they spend their money Daily management report contains only the forecast and actual attendance at each park 3 Forecasting at Disney World Disney generates daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and 5-year forecasts Forecast used by labor management, maintenance, operations, finance, and park scheduling Forecast used to adjust opening times, rides, shows, staffing levels, and guests admitted 4 Forecasting at Disney World 20% of customers come from outside the USA Economic model includes gross domestic product, cross-exchange rates, arrivals into the USA A staff of 35 analysts and 70 field people survey 1 million park guests, employees, and travel professionals each year 5 Forecasting at Disney World Inputs to the forecasting model include airline specials, Federal Reserve policies, Wall Street trends, vacation/holiday schedules for 3,000 school districts around the world Average forecast error for the 5-year forecast is 5% Average forecast error for annual forecasts is between 0% and 3% 6 What is Forecasting? .
