The main objective of this study is to assess and simulate impacts of climate change on erosion and water flow in the basin. Using a GIS database and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, the water flow and soil loss were assessed with data in period 1980-1999 called the based period, then simulated until 2100 considering the medium emission scenario (B2). | Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences, 39(4), 376-392, DOI: Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VAST) Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences Assessment and Simulation of Impacts of Climate Change on Erosion and Water Flow by Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and GIS: Case Study in Upper Cau River basin in Vietnam Tran Hong Thai*1, Nguyen Phuong Thao2, Bui Tien Dieu3 1 National Hydro-Meteorological Service, No. 4 Dang Thai Than street, Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi, Vietnam Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate change, No. 23, Lane 62, Nguyen Chi Thanh street, Dong Da district, Hanoi, Vietnam 3 Geographic Information System Group, Department of Business and IT, University College of Southeast Norway, Gullbringvegen 36, N-3800 BøiTelemark, Norway 2 Received 27 May 2017. Accepted 01 September 2017 ABSTRACT The Upper Cau river basin that plays an important role in socio-economic developments the North of Vietnam is sensitive to changes of climate influencing flows, erosion, and water resources. The main objective of this study is to assess and simulate impacts of climate change on erosion and water flow in the basin. Using a GIS database, and Soil, and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, the water flow, and soil loss assessed with data in period 1980-1999 called the base period, then simulated until 2100 considering the medium emission scenario (B2). The simulation results showed that the total annual runoff and soil loss tends to increase compared to the base period. For flow, the change rate of the simulation period is higher than the base period; the water flow rate will increase by (20202039) and up to (2080-2100). The total annual soil loss of the simulation period at Gia Bay station tends to increase steadily compared to the baseline, namely by (2020-2039) and (2080-2100). Overall, the result in this study shows that effects of climate changes on the .
