The results, based on regressive model, VAR model and Granger causality test, show that economic structural change impacts on the level of economic growth, labor productivity and the quality of life. This research also lays the foundation for a model for forecasting impacts of economic structural change. | 20 | Đinh Phi Hổ & Nguyễn Khánh Duy | 20 - 36 Impacts of Economic Structural Change on Economic Growth: Forecasting Models and Policy Implications (A Case Study of Bến Tre Province) Đinh Phi Hổ University of Economics HCMC dinhphiho@ Nguyễn Khánh Duy University of Economics HCMC khanhduy@ ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article history: Received: Sep. 5, 2013 Received in revised form Sep. 20, 2013 Accepted: Sep. 25, 2013 During the past ten years, economic growth in Vietnam changed positively in the direction of a modern industrial economy. Accordingly, economic structure also experienced changes in which manufacturing and service sectors accounted for a bigger share in the GDP. The government and most researchers are therefore very interested in economic structural change. This structural change in Vietnam as a whole requires the same change in local economies. However, some provinces did not catch up with the national development yet. Thus, in order to facilitate structural change on the whole economy, it is necessary to clarify what economic structural change aims at, and identify a quantitative model for measuring impact of such change, which becomes a real challenge to Vietnam’s researchers and policy makers. To help solve this problem, the authors conducted a case study in Bến Tre to seek practical evidence. The results, based on regressive model, VAR model and Granger causality test, show that economic structural change impacts on the level of economic growth, labor productivity and the quality of life. This research also lays the foundation for a model for forecasting impacts of economic structural change. Keywords: economic structural change, regression model, Granger causality test, changes in Bến Tre’s economic structure. Impacts of Economic Structural Change on Economic Growth JED October 2013| 21 INTRODUCTION Over the past ten years, Vietnamese economy has changed from a traditional agriculture to a modern industrial sector .
