The Ricardian model is used for estimating economic impacts of climate change on crop farming business in Vietnam. Analyses show that higher temperature and rainfall reduce net income of peasants. | ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS & CLIMATE CHANGE IN VN ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON VIETNAMESE CROP FARMING: A RICARDIAN MODEL by Dr. NGUYEÃN HÖÕU DUÕNG & MEcon. NGUYEÃN CHAÂU THOAÏI* The Ricardian model is used for estimating economic impacts of climate change on crop farming business in Vietnam. Analyses show that higher temperature and rainfall reduce net income of peasants. Temperature, however, has a non-linear impact on the net income (some 80%) while the impact of rainfall is unidentifiable. The scenario of climate change in Vietnam implies a prediction that when the temperature rises – and the rainfall rises by - , the Vietnamese agriculture will suffer a loss of – billion. Accordingly, its GDP will fall by - (if it rises by 3% per year on average) by the end of the century (2100). Keywords: climate change, Vietnamese agriculture, Ricardian model, economic impact 1. Introduction Temperature, rainfall and other climatic factors are changing in an increasingly unpredictable and drastic manner affecting output, income and health of communities at present and their future development as well. Agricultural production is affected most severely by the climate change. Compared with developed countries, agricultural production in developing countries suffers greater damage because of their poorer infrastructure and adjustability (World Bank 2010). Researchers of economic impacts of climate change on agricultural production in China, India, Latin America and Africa in the past 20 years usually use the Ricardian model and gain results useful for making of adaptation policy in these countries. In Vietnam, agriculture plays a key role in economic development and food security. Studying impacts of climate change on agriculture may help change the attitude towards this problem and quantify these impacts, thereby supporting the making of a timely adaptation program. At present, many questions are the center of attention, .
