The present work is a continuation and improvement of the application of the generalized extreme value distribution to study the seismicity of the Southeast Asia. We have applied the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) method to estimate maximum magnitude value (Mmax) for the earthquake catalog of Northern Vietnam. | Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences 38(4), 339-344 Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences (VAST) Prediction of maximum earthquake magnitude for northern Vietnam region based on the gev distribution Vu Thi Hoan*1, Ngo Thi Lu1, Mikhail Rodkin2, Nguyen Huu Tuyen1, Phung Thi Thu Hang1, Tran Viet Phuong1 1 Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology 2 International Institute of Earthquakes Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, RAS, Moscow Received 1 March 2016. Accepted 15 December 2016 ABSTRACT The present work is a continuation and improvement of the application of the generalized extreme value distribution to study the seismicity of the Southeast Asia. We have applied the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) method to estimate maximum magnitude value (Mmax) for the earthquake catalog of Northern Vietnam. Using this method, we obtain the distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude values. This distribution can be characterized by its quantile Qq(τ) at any desirable statistical level q. The quantile Qq(τ) provides a much more stable and robust characteristic than the traditional absolute maximum magnitude Mmax (Mmax can be obtained as the limit of Qq(τ) as q → 1, τ → ∞). The parameters have been obtained: = - ± ; = ± ; = ± ; Mmax = with the probability of 98% for period 2014 - 2064. Keywords: Maximum magnitude (Mmax), generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), earthquake prediction, seismic hazard. ©2016 Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology 1. Introduction1 The NorthernVietnam region is the most active tectonic and high potential risk area of Vietnam. The parameter Mmax represents the maximum of possible earthquake magnitude in the study region. This parameter plays a very important role in seismic hazard assessment and mitigation of the seismic risk. Giving a reliable estimate of Mmax, it is comparatively
