Bài viết trình bày một số kết quả đánh giá hiểm họa lũ lụt tại huyện Phú Lộc, tỉnh Thừa Thiên Huế theo các nguyên nhân khác nhau trong bối cảnh biến đổi khí hậu. Nguy cơ ngập lụt tại Phú Lộc được xác định gồm 3 nguyên nhân: Do lũ sông tràn bờ, do mưa lớn nội tại, do nước biển dâng kết hợp mưa trong bão. | VNU Journal of Science Earth and Environmental Sciences Vol. 37 No. 3 2021 27-38 Original Article Flood Hazard Assessment in Phu Loc District Thua Thien Hue Province in the Context of Climate Change Nguyen Kim Ngoc Anh Nguyen Hong Thuy Nguyen Bach Tung VNU University of Science 334 Nguyen Trai Thanh Xuan Hanoi Vietnam Received 15 September 2020 Revised 26 January 2021 Accepted 08 Feburary 2021 Abstract The paper presents a number of results of flooding depth assessment in Phu Loc district Thua Thien Hue province according to separate causes in case of climate change. The risk of flooding in Phu Loc is determined by 3 causes Rivers at high stages can inundate the unprotected upstream part of the area and overflow the River dikes fluvial flood Heavy rainfall which cannot be effectively drained can cause inundation pluvial flood and Strong storms at sea occurring at high tide can raise water levels by several meters and overflow the sea dike coastal flooding . Based on these three causes the study evaluates the risk of flooding for separate causes with return periods of 10 30 and 100 years in combination with climate change scenarios MONRE 2016 . Sea level rise and rainfall and flow are expected to increase in 2030 and 2070. Mike Flood model is used as a scenarios calculation tool after calibrating and validating model parameters with Nash - Sutcliffe indicators at Kim Long and Phuc Oc stations achieved quite good results 0 95 0 96 0 86 and 0 70 and compared flooded area with satellite images. The impact of these three flood risks on Phu Loc is almost the same with the overall flooding area increasing due to climate change with an increase of 1 to 5 . Keywords flood Phu Loc climate changescenarios. _ Corresponding author E-mail address ngocanhnk@ https 2588-1094 27 28 N. K. N. Anh et al. VNU Journal of Science Earth and Environmental Sciences Vol. 37 No. 3 2021 27-38 Đánh giá hiểm họa lũ lụt tại huyện Phú Lộc tỉnh Thừa Thiên Huế
