Survival times differ among patients with advanced gastric carcinoma. A precise and universal prognostic evaluation strategy has not yet been established. The current study aimed to construct a prognostic scoring model for mortality risk stratification in patients with advanced gastric carcinoma. | Ma et al. BMC Cancer 2021 21 1326 https s12885-021-09079-7 RESEARCH Open Access Development and validation of a prognostic scoring model for mortality risk stratification in patients with recurrent or metastatic gastric carcinoma Tai Ma1 Zhijun Wu2 Xiaopeng Zhang3 Hui Xu1 4 Ying Feng1 Cheng Zhang1 4 Minmin Xie1 Yahui Yang1 Yi Zhang1 Chong Feng3 and Guoping Sun1 4 Abstract Background Survival times differ among patients with advanced gastric carcinoma. A precise and universal prog- nostic evaluation strategy has not yet been established. The current study aimed to construct a prognostic scoring model for mortality risk stratification in patients with advanced gastric carcinoma. Methods Patients with advanced gastric carcinoma from two hospitals development and validation cohort were included. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to identify independent risk factors for survival. A prognostic nomogram model was developed using R statistics and validated both in bootstrap and external cohort. The concordance index and calibration curves were plotted to determine the discrimination and calibration of the model respectively. The nomogram score and a simplified scoring system were developed to stratify patients in the two cohorts. Results Development and validation cohort was comprised of 401 and 214 gastric cancer patients respectively. Mucinous or non-mucinous histology ECOG score bone metastasis ascites hemoglobin concentration serum albumin level lactate dehydrogenase level carcinoembryonic antigen level and chemotherapy were finally incor- porated into prognostic nomogram. The concordance indices were 95 CI and 95 CI for bootstrap and external validation. 100 and 200 were set as the cut-off values of nomogram score patients in development cohort were stratified into low- intermediate- and high-risk groups with median overall survival time 95 CI 95 CI and 95 CI
