We have investigated the time-dependent seismicity model of the earthquake occurrence on a regional basis through the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). To that end, the studied region has been subdivided into 7 seismogenic zones considering the seismotectonic criteria, and then regional time and magnitude predictable (RTIMAP) model has been performed. Intervened times and magnitudes of main shocks produced in each zone have predictive properties defined by the RTIMAP. The probabilities of the next main shocks in 5 decades and the magnitudes of the next events have been estimated using the formation time and magnitude of the past events in the zones. | Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences Turkish J Earth Sci 2021 30 215-234 http earth TÜBİTAK Research Article doi yer-2004-20 Time-dependent model for earthquake occurrence and effects of design spectra on structural performance a case study from the North Anatolian Fault Zone Turkey Ercan IŞIK1 Yunus Levent EKİNCİ2 3 Nilgün SAYIL4 Aydın BÜYÜKSARAÇ5 Mehmet Cihan AYDIN1 1 Department of Civil Engineering Bitlis Eren University Bitlis Turkey 2 Department of Archaeology Bitlis Eren University Bitlis Turkey 3 Career Application and Research Centre Bitlis Eren University Bitlis Turkey 4 Department of Geophysical Engineering Karadeniz Technical University Trabzon Turkey 5 Çan Vocational School Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University Çanakkale Turkey Received Accepted Published Online Final Version Abstract We have investigated the time-dependent seismicity model of the earthquake occurrence on a regional basis through the North Anatolian Fault Zone NAFZ . To that end the studied region has been subdivided into 7 seismogenic zones considering the seismotectonic criteria and then regional time and magnitude predictable RTIMAP model has been performed. Intervened times and magnitudes of main shocks produced in each zone have predictive properties defined by the RTIMAP. The probabilities of the next main shocks in 5 decades and the magnitudes of the next events have been estimated using the formation time and magnitude of the past events in the zones. In the second step of the study we have considered 17 settlements located on the NAFZ to perform point-based site-specific seismic hazard analyses and to determine the design spectra and earthquake parameters using updated Turkish Earthquake Hazard Map. Eigen value and static adaptive pushover analyses have been applied for the sample reinforced concrete building using the design spectra obtained from each settlement. This sample building has been modelled with the same .
