Last month news reports said the two had been married in the Dominican Republic. Mr and Mrs- Jackson say they kept the marriage secret because they are private people and wanted to avoid media attention. | Nevertheless there is a good reason to define these years as global recessions - a reason that exposes the flaws in the traditional definition of recession in a single economy. A more sensible definition of recession might therefore be when the growth rate falls significantly perhaps by at least two percentage points below its longterm potential causing unemployment to rise. In practice potential growth rates are devilishly7 hard to estimate - not least in America in recent years. A best guess is that the world s potential growth rate is - 4 so a slowdown to less than 2 growth ought to count as a recession. It is not only the definition of a world recession that is controversial. The actual figures for global GDP growth should also carry a health warning. One investment bank Morgan Stanley predicts global growth of 2 4 for this year down from 4 8 . In 2000 . Morgan on the other hand is gloomier with growth forecast at just 1 6 . However closer inspection reveals that the difference between the two forecasts is due largely to different methods used to add together individual countries growth rates. Morgan Stanley like the IMF uses weights based on countries GDP measured at purchasing-power parity8 PPP which adjusts for differences in price levels between countries. . Morgan use weights based on GDP at market exchange rates. The PPP method gives far more weight to emerging economies especially to China and since these economies are growing faster than rich ones the PPP-based figure for global growth comes out higher. Whichever measure you take thought the world economy is dangerously close to recession. 251 Từ vựng 1 GDP d3i di pi abbr tổng sản phẩm quốc nội Gross Domestic Product 2 slump slAmp v of prices hạ giảm bớt đột ngột trade business activity fall hoặc nhiều suddenly or greatly 3 plunge plAndJ v cause lăm cho ai ỉ cái gì sb sth to move suddenly chuyển động đột ngột lên forwards and or downward trưóc và hoặc xuống thấp 4 outright aut rait adj clear .
