MARKET OPPORTUNITY SECOND ERA OF LOW HANGING FRUIT Most carrier business planning personnel and hardware providers have long been captivated by the perceived market opportunity for data. In 1993 AT&T Wireless projected that 1 billion people will use wireless modems for electronic data communications by the year 2000. 1 Since that was one-quarter of the population of the earth, only seven years in the future, the number was bound to draw attention. While that particular projection was patently absurd, for the next few years AT&T Wireless continued to espouse greatly reduced but still aggressive forecasts | The Wireless Data Haadbaak Fourth Edition. James F. DeRose Copyright 1999 John Wiley Sons Inc. ISBNs 0-471-31651-2 Hardback 0-471-22458-8 Electronic 10 MARKET OPPORTUNITY SECOND ERA OF LOW HANGING FRUIT Most carrier business planning personnel and hardware providers have long been captivated by the perceived market opportunity for data. In 1993 AT T Wireless projected that 1 billion people will use wireless modems for electronic data communications by the year 2000. 1 Since that was one-quarter of the population of the earth only seven years in the future the number was bound to draw attention. While that particular projection was patently absurd for the next few years AT T Wireless continued to espouse greatly reduced but still aggressive forecasts. A 1995 example is Paging and data. could grow to 62 million by 2000 and 90 million by 2005. 2 Consultants pundits and the desperately needy have had a field day with projections of how large and how quickly the wireless data market would develop. The peak fantasy year may well have been 1992. With ARDIS BSWD and OmniTRACS all operational and CDPD announced the future never looked rosier. Table 10-1 is a representative sample of very large subscriber forecasts made during this period. More than half are unanchored projections views of the future in which the present was unknown unstated or unreported. Lotus had the steepest slope its forecast had 10 million in place within three years. Jack Blumenstein s 60 million for the year 2000 was later sustained by AT T s Kendra VanderMeulen. The next four projections were richly similar to each other. In 1994 when counterevidence was clearly available BIS Strategic Decisions after a prior conservative 1993 forecast joined the high flyer group in 1994 just as they began to waver in their convictions. Table 10-1 does not contain information that really helps one plan a business. Given the vintage the large quantities were almost certainly emotionally driven. Key 144 .
