tăng dân số chưa bao giờ xảy ra trong nền kinh tế thị trường phát triển nhưng luôn luôn trên vùng ngoại vi của các nền kinh tế phát triển, trong số những người không có đất màu mỡ và thiết bị sẽ cho phép họ duy trì nghèo, nhưng mà nhà đầu tư "được cung cấp những cơ hội mới cho sự sống còn. Những vùng ngoại vi, tuy nhiên, biến mất. | THE FATAL CONCEIT population growth has never taken place in developed market economies but always on the peripheries of developed economies among those poor who had no fertile land and equipment that would have enabled them to maintain themselves but to whom capitalists offered new opportunities for survival. These peripheries are however disappearing. Moreover there are hardly any countries left to enter the periphery the explosive process of population expansion has during the last generation or so very nearly reached the last corners of the earth. Consequently there is strong reason to doubt the accuracy of extrapolating the trend of the last several centuries - of an indefinitely increasing acceleration of population growth - into the indefinite future. We may hope and expect that once the remaining reservoir of people who are now entering the extended order is exhausted the growth of their numbers which distresses people so much will gradually recede. After all no fairly wealthy group shows any such tendency. We do not know enough to say when the turning point will be reached but we can fairly assume that it will be very long indeed before we approach the horrors which the fancy of the ineluctable indefinite increase of mankind conjures up. I suspect that the problem is already diminishing that the population growth rate is now approaching or has already reached its maximum and will not increase much further but will decline. One cannot of course say for certain but it appears that - even if this has not already occurred - some time in the last decade of this century population growth will reach a maximum and that afterwards it will decline unless there is deliberate intervention to stimulate it. Already in the mid 1960 s the annual rate of growth of the developing regions peaked at around percent and began to decline to the present level of around percent. And the population growth rate in more developed regions was already on the decline by this .
