Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu khoa học quốc tế về bệnh thú y đề tài: Estimation of Paratuberculosis Prevalence in Dairy Cattle in a Province of Korea using an Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay: Application of Bayesian Approach | J. Vet. Sci. 2003 4 1 51-56 JOURNAL OF Veterinary Science Estimation of Paratuberculosis Prevalence in Dairy Cattle in a Province of Korea using an Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay Application of Bayesian Approach Son-il Pak Doo Kim and Mo Salman1 Department of Veterinary Medicine Kangwon National University Chuncheon 200-701 Korea lAnimal Population Health Institute College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences Colorado State University Fort Collins CO 80523-1676 USA Received November 23 2002 Accepted February 26 2003 Abstract To draw inferences about the sensitivity and specificity of the newly developed ELISA test for bovine paratuberculosis PTB diagnosis and posterior distribution on the prevalence of PTB in a province of Korea we applied Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampler to the data extracted from the prevalence study in 1999. The data were from a single test results w ithout a designated gold test. The prevalence estim ates for PTB in study population ranged for conservative and for liberal depending on the priors used. The simulated specificities of the ELISA close to one another ranging whereas the sensitivity was somewhat spread out depending largely on the priors with a ran ge of . Our findings indicate that the ELIS A method appeared useful as a screening tool at a m inim um level in com p arison to other diagnostic tests available for this dise ase in terms of sensitivity. How ever this advantage comes at a cost of having low specificity of the test. Key words Mycobacterium paratuberculosis ELISA Bayesian Gibbs sampling Introduction Paratuberculosis PTB caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis has been reported in Korea for sever al decades and a ffect s a lar ge pr opor t ion of dair y cattle throughout the country. Few studies so far have been reported on the pr eva len ce at individual animal and at herd level in Korea alt hough PTB had been designated as a notifiable disease since 1961. .
