Poverty Impact Analysis: Approaches and Methods - Chapter 3

Identifying Poverty Predictors Using China’s Rural Poverty Monitoring Survey - Giới thiệu đất nước của thế giới đang phát triển lớn nhất, Cộng hòa Nhân dân Trung Hoa (PRC) có một số lượng lớn người nghèo nông thôn. Sử dụng chuẩn nghèo chính thức và dữ liệu thu nhập hộ gia đình, số lượng người dân nông thôn nghèo đã được ước tính khoảng 19 triệu vào cuối năm 2005. Sử dụng chuẩn nghèo cao hơn (gần với tiêu chuẩn $ 1a ngày), số người nghèo được ước tính là 82 triệu (KI 2007). Dự toán dựa trên chi. | CHAPTER 3 Identifying Poverty Predictors Using China s Rural Poverty Monitoring Survey Sangui Wang Pingping Wang and Heng Wang Introduction As the world s largest developing country the People s Republic of China PRC has a large rural poor population. Using the official poverty line and household income data the number of rural poor people was estimated at 19 million by the end of 2005. Using a higher poverty line close to the 1-a-day standard the number of poor is estimated to be 82 million KI 2007 . Estimation based on household consumption expenditure leads to a much higher number of rural poor Wang Li and Ranshun 2004 . Though rural poverty reduction has been dramatic because of continuing economic growth and targeted poverty reduction interventions sponsored by different government institutions in the past two decades major challenges exist in identifying the poor for more effective poverty intervention schemes. Because there is no reliable household-level information in terms of income and expenditure available for local areas the PRC has long been relying on geographic targeting at county and village levels for its poverty reduction programs. This has led to severe undercoverage and leakage problems in program and project implementation Sangui 2005 . Alternative ways to easily identify individual poor households for more effective poverty targeting are urgently needed in the PRC. Poverty predictor modeling PPM established by using household survey data and modern econometric analysis is one alternative that can be applied to individual poverty targeting Ward Owens and Kahyrara 2002 . This chapter discusses the methods and processes of PPM for the PRC. The main purpose of this modeling exercise was to estimate the correlates of poverty at the household level. For practical reasons poverty predictor variables included-and eventually found significant in the modeling exercise-were non-income and other expenditure indicators that are easily collected. .

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