Climate change as environmental and economic hazard Part 6

Môi trường bao gồm tất cả mọi thứ mà có thể có ảnh hưởng trực tiếp đến sự trao đổi chất hay các hành vi của các cơ thể sống hay các loài, bao gồm ánh sáng, không khí, nước, đất và các cơ thể sống khác. Xem thêm môi trường tự nhiên. | 204 Fankhauser Kennedy and Skea The CCC did not make an ethical choice between those methods. Instead it argued pragmatically that it is difficult to imagine a global deal that would not ask developed countries to reduce their per capita emissions to global average levels. Allowing some large emitters to remain above the global average would require other emitters to remain below it and agreement on such an outcome is unlikely. This argumentation first put forward by Stern 2008 implies a roughly 80 per cent reduction in UK emissions from currently just over 10 tCO2e per capita to around tCO2e per capita. In absolute terms the UK would have to reduce emissions from 695 MtCO2e in 2006 to 159 MtCO2e in 2050 see Figure 1 . The 80 per cent target is in line with a growing international consensus on and commitment to long-term emission cuts by developed countries. The target is formulated as a minimum requirement leaving open the option of further cuts if required for example in the light of new scientific evidence . Despite framing climate change as a risk issue the CCC did not ignore the issue of mitigation costs which is central to economic assessments. Considerable effort went into ascertaining that FIGURE 1 Current UK emissions and the 2050 target Source CCC 2008 . Note UK emissions in 2006 including transport were 16 lower than in 1990. Hence an 80 emissions cut relative to 1990 translates into a 1 77 reduction from today. the proposed targets are technically feasible and can be achieved at reasonable cost. They can. The CCC s modelling results based on MARKAL concur with the IPCC fourth assessment Barker et al. 2007 that cutting emissions by four-fifths would cost no more than 1-2 per cent of GDP in 2050 see AEA 2008 . A key plank of the long-term abatement strategy would have to be the decarbonization of the electricity sector through a combination of renewable energy nuclear power and carbon capture and sequestration CCS . On the back of a .

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