Vì vậy, các nhà cung cấp vốn thường xuyên sử dụng một giá trị không chính xác đầu tư của họ. • Các rủi ro tương đối của sự không chắc chắn đầu tư trở lại trong tương lai sẽ được nhận là không chính thức định lượng. | Two Methods Within the Income Approach 111 Multiple-Period Discounting Method An alternative to the simplicity of the SPCM is the multiple-period discounting method MPDM . Through use of a multiple-year forecast this method overcomes both of the potentially limiting SPCM assumptions. The forecasted future returns which typically range from 3 to 10 years can portray future returns that may not be representative of the company s anticipated long-term performance. It also can accurately reflect variations in the return over the life of the forecast from for example changes in revenues expenses or capital expenditures. Thus when material return variations are anticipated the MPDM should be employed and the SPCM rejected. At the same time it should be recognized that the methods will generate identical results if the returns forecasted in the MPDM reflect the long-term growth rate used in the SPCM computation. Because M A decisions normally involve large amounts of money and carry long-term consequences for buyers and sellers the MPDM generally should be used unless the subject company has very stable earnings and constant growth is the likely outcome. As commonly developed the MPDM has two stages. The first is a forecast of a specific number of years and the second stage is a method for estimating the terminal value that is the value for all years after the forecasted period. The MPDM is portrayed mathematically as PV 4 rn 1 g 1 d 1 1 d 2 1 d 3 1 d n d - g 1 d n where PV Present value r Return generic term for whichever type of earnings or cash flow is selected d Discount rate g The long-term sustainable growth rate n The last period in the forecast which should be a sustainable long-term return d g Capitalization rate 112 Income Approach Using Rates and Returns to Establish Value Note the implicit end-of-year convention assumes the return is received at the end of each year. For start-up companies or ventures into emerging industries it may be difficult to forecast .
