Một giá trị tính theo cách này có thể được xem như là trồng một cổ phần trên mặt đất và tạo ra một trường hợp cơ sở để xem xét quyết định thay thế và tác động của họ về giá trị, như được mô tả sau này trong Chương 6, "Đánh giá phương pháp tiếp cận thay thế." | 44 CALCULATE CURRENT VALUE A value calculated in this way can be viewed as planting a stake in the ground and creating a base case against which to consider alternative decisions and their impact on value as described later in Chapter 6 Evaluate Alternative Approaches. Calculating this base case current organization value involves three straightforward steps 1. Analyze historical financial data 2. Create financial inputs and project cash flows based on historical analysis 3. Calculate the cost of capital to use as the discount rate Once these are completed it is a simple matter to discount the cash flows and ending value to the present and calculate the current organization value. There are obviously many ways to analyze financial data. The ones used in the example below for ABC Company are simple to understand and implement and provide a reasonable approximation of how the future cash flows might look all other things being equal. The important point at this stage is to understand how a base case is created and value calculated. Subsequent iterations and alternative scenarios are limited only by the imagination and time available to perform them. How to use the organizational value model as an important planning tool is discussed in Chapter 6. Historical Data For ease of presentation five years of prior historical data will be considered. The financial data of particular interest are highlighted in Exhibit . The five most recent years are considered. Year 0 represents the most recent fiscal year Calculate Current Organization Value 45 EXHIBIT Selected Historical Data for ABC Company Year -5 Year -4 Year -3 Year -2 Year -1 Year 0 Mean Revenue 750 800 850 900 950 1000 Change 6 Operating Profit 64 77 90 105 120 Operating Profit Margin 10 Taxes 26 28 40 44 46 Tax Ratea 40 Net Working Capitalb 40 41 43 45 46 48 Increase 1 2 2 1 2 Increase as of Sales Increase 2 4 4 2 4 3 Net Fixed Capital 80 81
