Thâm hụt nhỏ hơn có thể tăng cường đồng đô la, đó là tin tốt cho thị trường trái phiếu. Tuy nhiên, thâm hụt nhỏ hơn cũng cho biết thêm so với GDP là tin xấu cho thị trường trái phiếu. Làm thế nào để thị trường trái phiếu sẽ giải thích và đáp ứng với một mức thâm hụt thu hẹp thường là một sự phản ánh hiện trạng của tâm hơn bất cứ điều gì khác. | 232 WHAT TO BUY stashed in a money market fund. Our ordinary savings is in stock and bond funds cash and occasionally gold. The mix depends on my economic outlook. Our retirement savings and the kids college funds are currently all in stocks high-yield bonds and international funds. I feel I can be more risky in these last savings categories because we have more time to ride out the peaks and valleys. However as time marches on and we get close to retirement and college bills I will retrench and become a lot more conservative with these accounts. My dad who is one of the only people who invested in IBM in the 1960s and lost money right idea bad timing advice always told me Only invest as much as you can afford to lose. I agree this is true when you re considering investing in risky ventures. How do you know how risky a bond is Well look at the duration. A bond with a 10-year duration could decline in value 30 if interest rates rise 300 basis points. By this I mean a change from 7 to 10 see page 149. If you re risk-averse buy bonds with lower durations. However if you re not averse to risk and think interest rates are going down buy bonds with longer durations. If you are a very risk-averse investor perhaps you should plan to invest only money that you won t need. Then invest this money in bonds that fit your risk and financial profile and hold the bonds until maturity. As we went over in Part Three bonds tend to be riskier if they have lower ratings lower coupons and longer maturities. You also assume additional risk when you invest in nondollar investments. If you are risk-averse limit your exposure in these categories and focus on bonds with higher ratings larger coupons and shorter maturities. These tend to be less risky more defensive alternatives. Active management can add another dimension of uncertainty and potential misjudgment. But this leads our discussion into a conundrum because inaction is also an action. By not doing anything you can miss .
