vị trí xử lý kỷ luật tài chính của các nước này có thể có các nhà đầu tư thuyết phục, nên các ngân hàng và kinh nghiệm tài chính giống các công ty, chính phủ sẽ có các nguồn lực để Như đã nhấn mạnh trong chương 1, dự đoán thời gian của cuộc khủng hoảng tiền tệ và | Table Microeconomic indicators banking crises Indicator Percentage of crises accurately called Noise-to-signal Bank lending-deposit interest rate spread 73 Interbank debt growth 80 Interest rate on deposits 80 Rate of growth on loans 58 Net profits to income 60 Operating costs to assets 40 Change in banks equity prices 7 Risk-weighted capital-to-asset ratio 7 Source Rojas-Suarez 1998 . longest lead time namely 19 months. The average lead time for these early signals is 15 months for currency crises. All the indicators considered are therefore best regarded as leading rather than coincident which is consistent with the spirit of an early warning system. For banking crises there is a greater dispersion in the lead time across indicators and the average lead time is also lower about 11 months . Furthermore most of the indicators signal at about the same time thus the signaling is cumulative and all the more compelling. Thus on the basis of these preliminary results there does appear to be adequate lead time for preemptive policy actions to avert crises. Microeconomic Indicators Selective Evidence If as the previous discussion suggests banking crises are more difficult to predict on the basis of macroeconomic indicators than currency crises it appears that the analysis of banking crises may benefit from including a variety of microeconomic indicators of bank health. Gonzales-Hermosillo et al 1997 and Rojas-Suarez 1998 provide some insights in this direction. Rojas-Suarez uses bank-specific data from Colombia Mexico and Venezuela and applies the signals methodology to this data to glean which items in bank balance sheets are most useful in predicting banking distress. Her results are summarized in table . They do indeed suggest that bank-specific information could make an important contribution in assessing the vulnerability of the banking sector in emerging markets. More traditional indicators such as liquidity ratios and
